Just eight weeks prior that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while his coach scolded him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, as the club went six without a win, the question was if his displays were a symptom or a cause of the team's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, however, the sideline response proved to be far more favourable. When the in-form star swept in his second to restore the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa marched on to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, are somehow a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?
It remains a particularly tough query to address. History, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been wholly dominant during this run, while the victories have stacked up.
According to Opta, twice all season has the side posted an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a team who have just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look strangely fragile – but right now the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with the opposition and wait for their talisman to bail them out with some precise efforts. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and again versus the Red Devils.
His opener stemmed from a superb shot, bent precisely inside the upright from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opponents registered more shots and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge they have to face over the coming weeks. The forward, surely, cannot keep on drilling the ball into the net's top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be a different scenario whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The winger might become the player he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are set to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And certainly back in October, nobody thought the young forward now would be spearheading a title charge while looking like an essential Three Lions star.
The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the hero faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.
